Use cases

Six engines, sequenced the way an engagement should be: measurable operational savings first, regulatory enablement second, differentiated technology third, strategic advisory last.

Offshore logistics

Phase I · Immediate ROI

90 days default horizon

The problem: every hour a platform runs out of diesel or supplies can halt production worth millions, yet sending more boats burns money and fuel, and bad weather keeps breaking the schedule. This model compares sending boats straight from port to each platform against a shared floating warehouse at sea. So what: it shows which setup keeps platforms supplied at the lowest cost and emissions — and how many boats you really need.

The problem

Keep every offshore platform supplied without overpaying for boats.

Why today's method fails

Spreadsheets size the fleet on average demand and miss weather queues — the real cause of stockouts.

The solution logic

1 · Real-world friction

•200–300 km offshore
•Wave height blocks cargo transfer
•Drilling units move mid-campaign

2 · Agent rules

•Vessels: load → sail → wait → discharge → return
•Platforms burn diesel and reorder at a cover trigger
•Hub buffers stock at sea

3 · Levers tested

•Direct vs fixed hub vs moving hub
•Fleet size
•Reorder trigger

4 · Outcome (so what)

•Fewer stockout hours
•1 fewer vessel
•~40% fewer miles & CO₂

The problem

Pre-salt units sit 200 to 300 km offshore. Every drilling and production campaign depends on a choreography of supply vessels, berths, weather windows and tank levels, and the cost of getting it wrong is not the charter rate — it is deferred production. A spreadsheet sized on average demand cannot see the queueing and weather interactions that actually cause a unit to run dry.

How the model tackles it

Each vessel is an agent with a five-state machine, each producing or drilling unit an agent with its own consumption, tank and reorder trigger. An AR(1) significant-wave-height process gates cargo transfer and degrades transit speed. Mobile drilling units relocate mid-campaign, which is what makes a fixed hub position sub-optimal and gives a self-propelled hub something to chase.

What it is worth commercially

Fleet sizing and charter decisions, hub business cases, and an auditable emissions-intensity number per cubic metre delivered. This is the engine with the clearest and fastest payback, which is why it leads the engagement.

Headline finding

The hub cases reach an acceptable service level with one fewer chartered vessel and roughly 40% fewer steamed miles than direct supply. The self-propelled hub's advantage over a fixed one is second-order at this cluster geometry and grows with demand heterogeneity — a result worth stating plainly rather than overselling.

Reported metrics

Cost per well-day

Charter cost

Fleet utilisation

Stockout hours

Waiting on weather

kgCO₂e per m³

Nautical miles

Service level

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